Omicron could be the last variant...

But not for the reason you'd think (March 2022, unpublished)

The following is a commissioned piece from an unnamed newspaper about a coming wave of Omicron. The editor trailed off but I would like you, dear reader, to benefit regardless. The piece has been untouched from early March 2022, and it’s quite interesting because it posited that Omicron could be the last variant for a reason that seemed quite accurate.

Please enjoy

AJ

“What's in a name? That which we call a rose/ By any other name would smell as sweet.”

-William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

BA.2. You likely have not heard of it. Who would care to? The letters hang in the air without any obvious reference, like a postmodern painting in some obscure museum made by an early-career artist far, far away. To cut the introduction short, BA.2 is an offshoot of Omicron.

Chances are you will hear of it more often. BA.2 is behind the Netherlands’ and UK´s uptick in hospitalizations. That makes sense, because in lab studies it was found to be more capable of producing disease than the original Omicron. What may not make sense, depending on what you’ve heard, is that a subsequent dominant offshoot is more capable of causing worse disease than Omicron.

“Don’t viruses mutate to be less severe?”

Yes and No. There are a few things at play here, namely “mutations” and “natural selection.” As the virus replicates it will produce errors called mutations. You may have heard of replication errors as a cause for cells that go on to become cancerous. Just like cells, the virus reproduces and uses a template to do so, and sometimes there are errors in the template. This is usually random. For Omicron we can treat it as such.

Next is natural selection. Fitter forms of the virus are more likely to be passed on. The thing about SARS Cov 2 is that it allows for easy transmission before anyone gets extremely ill, if at all, so if mutation make it attach to human cells better, spread faster, linger longer, or evade our innate immunity better, it will likely pass on better. Curiously, most of these changes are ones that would make it be more severe as an illness. So, contrary to what you may have heard, in many cases the fitter virus is more likely to create severe illness as well. This is exemplified by Delta’s ability to rapidly replicate by fusing cells together. It causes more severe disease and increases viral load.

“So, what’s up with that adage that viruses mutate to be less severe?”

I’d like to introduce you to a physics concept called the Anthropic Principle. It’s basically about how we are able to observe the Universe because conditions were “Just So” in order for us to actually do so. If special conditions were not met, and things like gravity were not in the parameters they are in, or water not polar like it is, we would not be able to observe the universe as human beings.

Now go back to biology and the adage that viruses mutate to be less severe. How do we have that assumption? Because when we look at existing viruses and species, we see that the virus appeared less severe for the host species. At least, that is what we think. This adage, turns out, not to be always true, on closer examination. In fact, Myxomatosis virus evolved to be more pathogenic to rabbits, however the surviving rabbits that reproduced were more likely to handle the infection. There was natural selection of the host species rather than viral attenuation. In my opinion, you and I are not the humans best adapted to safely host SARS Cov 2.

I am not saying to trade in the attenuation dream for the pathogenic nightmare, but we must approach homilies especially as they pertain to science with a little more nuance, especially if the virus remains a threat to the health of the labor force, the economy, and (inter)national security. We should also set up an immunity-based criteria for designating Variants of Concern, perhaps with a rapid pathway to designation if there is a difference where it can cause another wave in a country that has already had its rounds with the same scarlet letter. The Netherlands is currently experiencing a BA.2 wave and hospitalizations are also rising in the heavily convalescent UK. This is not entirely unexpected as the Sato laboratory released a highly detailed study explaining BA.2’s mutations and its ability to create more severe illness in animals by analyzing the cells after infection. The group also showed that immunity from the original Omicron poorly protected from BA.2

So what does it mean for the world? That Omicron could be the last Variant of Concern, but not for the reasons you’d hope. A newly designated VoC would rob us of the recent political victory we’ve had over Sars Cov 2. Either way, BA.2, Omicron, Deltamicron, it’s all Greek to me.